Arizona's 50+ voters will be key in determining who wins the presidential election in November.

A new AARP Arizona poll, which was commissioned before the recent debate debacle, found former President Donald Trump leading President Joe Biden by eight percentage pointed.

Bob Ward, partner at the research firm Fabrizio Ward, said Arizona has a high number of older voters, which have historically made their voices heard but are not necessarily party-loyal. He pointed out one of the poll findings worth noting is women over the age of 50 could play a pivotal role in tipping the scales.

"There is a gender gap, and if we look at women over 50, they are tied on the presidential race," Ward reported. "Both Trump and Biden are at 42% among women 50+ and Trump has more than a 22-point lead among men 50+."

Ward added Trump's lead among older Arizona voters is 10 points ahead of Biden, with most citing immigration and border security as the most important issue, followed by inflation and rising prices and threats to democracy. Meanwhile, Arizona Hispanic voters are helping Biden lead over Trump, 48% to 37% respectively.

Another highly anticipated contest is the Senate race between Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego and Republican Kari Lake. Poll results showed Gallego holds a narrow lead over Lake. The gender gap among 50+ voters is also significant, with women supporting Gallego by 12 percentage points and men preferring Lake by 15. Gallego has been an advocate for abortion rights and Lake has been a strong proponent for increased border security.

Jeff Liszt, partner at Impact Research, said 50+ voters are highly motivated and will make their voice heard.

"If you look at the people that are 10 out of 10, extremely motivated to vote, the percentage of voters over 50, who are 10 out of 10 is 86%," Liszt explained. "That is 20 points higher than the 66% of voters under age 50 who tell us they are 10 out of 10 motivated to vote."

Liszt called it a huge gap and added it will be interesting to see whether younger voters will show up and vote, adding he has confidence in older voters in the Grand Canyon State.


get more stories like this via email

A new lawsuit is challenging Maryland's closed primary system. If the lawsuit is successful, nearly a million Marylanders may be able to vote in upcoming primaries.

Unaffiliated voters signed up as neither a Republican nor Democrat when they registered to vote, but in Maryland, that means they can't vote in primary elections.

Jeremy Gruber, senior vice president of the Open Primaries Education Fund and a plaintiff in the lawsuit, said states must expand primary election access to independents because the vast majority of general elections aren't competitive.

"This lawsuit is meant to address a situation where publicly funded and administered elections - which primaries are - are shutting out American citizens," he said. "We cannot continue to call ourselves a democracy when we allow that to continue to happen."

Supporters of closed primaries argue the system makes sure only dedicated members of a political party vote for a nominee, and they also prevent efforts from an opposing party trying to influence another party's nomination process. Maryland is one of 15 states with closed primaries.

In recent years, Colorado, Alaska and New Mexico have all changed their primary process. Gruber argued that if the government is going to run primary elections, then it must ensure all people are allowed to participate. He said closed primary systems are a voting-rights issue.

"Maryland is well behind the rest of the country in recognizing and empowering independent voters," he said. "This is a voting-rights issue that has to be addressed in Maryland. When a million voters can't vote, that is a crisis."

In 2024, 17.6 million voters were barred from voting in primaries because of their unaffiliated or independent status on voter rolls. According to the Bipartisan Policy Center, average voter turnout was nearly 20% higher in open primary states compared with closed primary states.


get more stories like this via email

The weekend assassination of Minnesota lawmaker Melissa Hortman is seen by many as a setback in recruiting future civic leaders who seek out bipartisanship.

One organization doing this work said it is still possible. Hortman was often credited for a being a fierce advocate for causes aligned with her supporters but also for striking compromises serving as House Speaker in the State Legislature.

Jake Loesch, executive director of the nonpartisan, nonprofit Citizens League, said training people how to work with elected officials from the "other side" is a key part of their programming. He acknowledged it might be hard for the public to see but there are moments where good faith bargaining wins the day.

"There are always good, bipartisan things that come out of any legislative session here in Minnesota," Loesch pointed out. "I think unfortunately, that doesn't always attract the news headlines."

Loesch's organization has a new program prompting state lawmakers to visit legislators from another party in their home community. He explained it makes it easier for them to see each other as humans, not the enemy. Loesch admitted the political system is still built around a "winner take all" approach, which often rewards partisan fights.

Loesch added if lawmakers can learn more about each other's backgrounds, a better understanding could hopefully rub off on voters and diminish the thirst for hateful rhetoric. He cautioned progress will not happen right away.

"We didn't get here overnight and it's going to take a long time to find a better level of collaboration and political understanding, and to stop attacking the other," Loesch emphasized. "There are lots of forces working against that."

He cited the overlap with social media as one such force. Meanwhile, political researchers noted besides Minnesota and a handful of other states, most legislatures in the U.S. have one-party control -- some since the mid-1990s -- making it difficult for lawmakers to gain compromise skills.


get more stories like this via email

Minnesota and the nation are feeling the emotional weight of political violence after this weekend's assassination of a top Democratic state lawmaker and the attack of a fellow legislator.

Rep. Melissa Hortman, D-Brooklyn Park, who had served as Minnesota House Speaker, was killed inside her home along with her husband. In the nearby suburb of Champlin, Sen. John Hoffman, D-Champlin, and his wife were also shot and wounded. Police call the shootings "politically motivated."

The incidents follow a trend of political violence beginning with this spring's arson attack at the Pennsylvania Governor's mansion.

David Schultz, professor of political science at Hamline University, said the current mood somewhat mirrors the violence toward prominent leaders seen in the 1960s.

"Once violence starts to occur, people get used to violence or it becomes part of the game," Schultz explained. "That seems to be where we're degenerating right now."

The events follow last year's assassination attempt on President Donald Trump on the campaign trail, along with increased threats against poll workers. Schultz noted in a healthy democracy, ballots, elections and other engagement tools resolve differences, not violence. He worries the attacks will discourage elected officials from talking with constituents and curtail open meetings.

Schultz pointed out society has grown used to a more isolated way of life, pointing to shopping habits and some people choosing to live in areas cut off from those with different views. Making matters worse, he added, political messages spread through social media fuel misinformation and radicalization.

"Falsity travels more rapidly, more deeply than truth," Schultz observed. "The relative anonymity or distance of the social media also emboldens people to radicalize. Put all that altogether, that gets us part of the recipe of where we are in our society right now."

Schultz added he is not optimistic heightened tensions and political violence will end anytime soon. He said there are some encouraging signs younger voters will not embrace identity politics and demonize their political opponents, but he believes the patterns have shifted, delaying a return to a moderate political tone.


get more stories like this via email